29 April 2009

As I anticipated, the new Right-wing government in Israel is starting to crack down on dissent (http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/, 26 April 2009: ‘Israeli Activists Need Your Help!’) The reason given for harassing New Profile activists is that they ‘incite’ young Israeli people to avoid military service — which they do not. But I think this is only an excuse. This recent action is designed to intimidate all peace activists in Israel, particularly those who ‘give Israel a bad name abroad’. The crackdown on New Profile is designed to establish a new playing field with new rules and is beginning to demonstrate a new culture of intolerance for internal dissent. I believe it is also a warning message to those outside of Israel who have connections with these activists.

‘Winning’ the propaganda ‘war’ is extremely important to Israel and hasbara (Israeli publicity abroad) efforts have been intensified considerably since Gaza. The small but internationally vocal peace groups in Israel are a major headache to the Israeli government. With Avigdor Lieberman and Binyamin Netanyahu at the helm I expect that whatever is left of the so-called Israeli democracy will be eroded even further, and they will do what they do in the name of ‘national security’. I expect that soon enough even veteran groups like Gush Shalom (Uri Avneri’s group) will be declared a threat to national security, which is a good excuse for the government to do whatever it wants.

My sense, and I could be wrong, is that Israel is moving slowly but surely on a path to true and more open fascism led by Lieberman — this means no dissent, emergency laws, nationalisation of resources, and much more open military aggression and expansion of territory. Lieberman has no regard for democracy or human rights at all. He will do whatever ‘is necessary’ to achieve his goals, and his main goal is a strong and territorially large Israel, not ‘bothered’ by Palestinian resistance — an Israel that will become openly the terror of the Middle East. It’s the same philosophy Israel has been following all along — avoiding threat from others by establishing itself as the country that no one can defeat on the battlefield, and that wouldn’t hesitate to invade other countries and bomb them with impunity if it feels threatened. Under Lieberman this will be done more openly and without ‘annoying diplomacy’. I don’t think he will allow pesky laws, democratic principles or internal and international public opinion to get in his way. This fellow is a disordered, traumatised bully and his outlook on life and the world is extremely negative and dangerous.

If the unlikely happens and the US begins to express active disapproval and stops its financial and military backing of Israel, this will only make Lieberman more determined. He is already trying to create a new relationship with Russia, hoping that Israel will have a new ally in the event that US/Israel relations go sour. He is well aware that the Americans are uncomfortable with him. Lieberman will have no problem demanding that Jewish Israelis make do with a lot less in order to keep the country ‘safe’, if their financial situation deteriorates — ‘survival’ is more important than having new cars and supermarkets full of luxuries. I can easily see a return to the Tzena economic policy of the 1950’s (this was similar to war-time economy in Britain for example: centralised resource distribution, rations, food stamps etc.) under Lieberman, if Israel loses American financial support and/or if the BDS (Boycott, Divestment & Sanctions) campaign expands and really hurts Israel. They did it in the 50’s, and they can do it now. Lieberman grew up in Soviet Russia and he is not afraid of harsh conditions and shortages. He also knows that in hard times those at the top still have more to eat than the ordinary citizens, so he is not so worried about himself and his family. Lieberman is accustomed to a brutal government and security services that do whatever they want and have no regard for human rights. I believe that, like many victims, he secretly admires his past oppressors and is likely to follow in their footsteps. He is the perfect person to mobilise the more extremist, fundamentalist and apocalyptic feelings so many Israeli Jews already have. Psychologically Israeli Jews have always lived in a siege mentality. If they begin to feel this siege economically as well, it will be very easy to mobilise a critical majority of them to do whatever their government wants them to do.

Israel is feeling very threatened now by what seems to be a diminishing and no longer so automatic US support, and by international protest to which Israel is extremely sensitive. Knowing something about Israeli psychology I believe that rather than cave in, Israel is more likely to behave like an angry person pushed into a corner. They are likely to lash out more strongly, shed the last vestiges of their so-called democracy and stop ‘being nice’. People like Lieberman do not believe in democracy. They think of democratic rule as a kind of a luxury that you can afford when things are going well but that you should be readily prepared to sacrifice, if they don’t. He will have no trouble getting rid of what’s left of Israel’s democratic laws if they ‘get in the way’ of what ‘needs to be done’, or if they get in the way of what he perceives as Israel’s survival. Lieberman probably perceives democracy as weak and ineffective and as partly responsible for the problems Israel is having with the Palestinian people. In his kind of country there will be no ‘nonsense’ like a Palestinian suing the Israeli government for some injustice, or Ha’aretz journalists writing articles that criticise Israel...

With Lieberman at the helm, Jewish Israeli behaviour will become that of someone who is desperate and has nothing to lose. In individual psychology this can lead to murder-suicide type behaviour. In the psychology of nations, I hate to think. Lieberman has already talked about dropping atomic bombs on Gaza and attacking Egypt, with whom Israel has a peace agreement. I would seriously worry about the Palestinian citizens of Israel. It is not inconceivable that he will simply strip them of their citizenship and kick them out of the country. This will make their status the same as that of the occupied Palestinians. Lieberman believes Palestinians have no right to be Israeli citizens and that it was a mistake to allow them to stay back in 1948 and become citizens. This view was a big part of his election platform. We know how little the rest of the world does in the face of even the most blatant injustices, and Lieberman counts on the fact that he could get away with something like this and worse. It’s the ‘frog in the pot’ metaphor. You escalate a little bit at a time and desensitise the world to worse and worse things until the unthinkable can be done with impunity, and before we know it the boundaries of what is acceptable have been pushed too far. I heard somewhere that Hitler once said, ‘Who remembers the Armenians?’ I don’t know if it is historically accurate but it may well be. It simply means that fascist and fascist-like leaders count on humanity’s short memory and silence, and know that they can get away with a lot.

I worry also about Israeli Jews who do not agree with Lieberman and the direction he is taking — like the members of the ‘New Profile’ group that the Israeli police is now targetting. He will be just as cruel to these people as he will be to those he perceives as enemies already. In fascist regimes there is no mercy for ‘traitors’ as we know from so many historical precedents. The attack on Gaza pushed the boundaries of what Israel could get away with, Lieberman will push them further.

If Lieberman is forced to resign because of the corruption allegations against him, things might be different. I don’t think Netanyahu has what it takes to do what Lieberman can do. Netanyahu is too narcissistic and fundamentally wants to be liked and admired by the Americans. He could be pushed to accept a two-state solution, but not Lieberman. He is a kind of a desperado. He doesn’t care about what anyone thinks about him and I suspect he harbours a great deal of contempt for the US. So if he goes, things might continue as they have been in Israel, but true Israeli fascism will depend on Lieberman staying in power.

I hope very much that I am wrong but I think reality in the Middle East is about to change dramatically.


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